UK Climate Projections UKCP09

The government’s UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) provide information on how the UK’s climate is likely to change in the 21st century, as it responds to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For the first time this new set of data provides probabilistic projections of climate change based on quantification of the known sources of uncertainty.

For the Yorkshire and Humber region the key headline results* from UKCP09 are:

 
*These results are all based on the ‘medium emissions’ scenario at the central estimate (i.e. 50th percentile).

Whilst the above figures seem relatively modest changes, they imply that significant adaptive action may be necessary in the Yorkshire and Humber region to either respond to the risks of a changing climate or take advantage of some of the opportunities that may arise. The results are broadly in line with the Regional Adaptation Study published by the former Regional Assembly in March 2009.

Adaptive action required in the region

The table below illustrates the likely impacts and indicative actions.